As Flu and COVID season approached this year, we want to make sure that you have access to the latest and best information regarding vaccination. Below is the current state of expectations for this year’s flu and COVID season and vaccines. As we go through the year, more information will become available, and we encourage you to discuss any questions with us.
Here is a quick overview of how vaccines are developed on a yearly basis. Every year, there are multiple variants or “strains” of Flu and COVID in circulation. A year ahead of time, infectious disease specialists project which variants of these viruses they think will be the most predominant and dangerous for the following fall. Some years the prediction is highly accurate, but other years the predominant virus variant does not match the vaccine, and it is less effective than normal. This year, the targeted strains are as below:
- H1N1: A/Victoria/4897/2022-like virus
- H3N2: A/Croatia/10136RV/2023-like virus
- B/Victoria lineage: B/Austria/1359417/2021-like virus
It is still too early to know if these match the dominant strains that will be circulating later in the year. In general, the Flu vaccines have had efficacy of around 40 to 50% of preventing illness, and around 60% of preventing hospitalization. Maximum benefit is typically four months after immunization. Later in the year, there will be more information to tell us if the vaccine is more or less effective than usual against these strains. For now, we are guided by historical numbers.
The COVID vaccine is prepared in a similar way. Vaccines this year will be targeting the JN.1 lineage of the omicron variant. As with the Flu, the expectation is that this will be the predominant strain, however this may change with time. Maximum benefit is typically 1-2 months after immunization. Protection against mild disease tends to fade in a few months, while protection from severe disease lasts several months longer.
Vaccine Availability
Flu Vaccines: Expected to be available by early September 2025
- All formulations this season are trivalent, meaning they protect against three strains of influenza.
- COVID-19 Vaccines: Updated vaccines targeting the JN.1 lineage of the Omicron variant, specifically the LP.8.1 strain, will be available in early fall 2025.
Individuals who may have a higher-than-average benefit:
- Older adults (65+)
- People highly likely to be exposed (healthcare workers, work with the public)
- Children under 5, especially under 2
- Pregnant individuals
- People with chronic conditions such as: Asthma, Diabetes, Heart disease, Chronic kidney or liver disease, Obesity, Immunocompromised states (e.g., cancer, HIV, organ transplant)
Individuals with a lower-than-average benefit:
- History of reactions to vaccine
- Unlikely to be exposed
- Allergies to vaccine ingredients
- Low likelihood of severe disease
- Gillian-Barre disease with vaccination in the past
- Increased risk in other inflammatory or auto-immune populations has not been studied.
A final note is that the higher the percentage of a population that is immunized, the less viruses will spread. If you have questions about your specific health situation, please do not hesitate to ask!
